Peti Besi Emas: The Right Time to Buy Gold

Turun dan naik harga emas bergantung kepada 2 faktor utama iaitu:

Prestasi US Dollar
Demand (permintaan) emas dari seluruh negara di dunia

Mari kita lihat dan kaji sendiri situasi semasa di dunia berkenaan dengan DEMAND EMAS:

Demand Fundamentals

World Central Bank Purchases

Thirteen different sovereign government central banks added 456.4 metric tonnes to their reserve in 2011, the most in five decades. Based on the first four months of central bank demand this year, they are tracking to go over 700 metric tonnes this year. While the Gold tonnage demand from central banks in recent months has been significant, Gold is a tiny fraction of most central bank reserves, especially the emerging market creditor nations like China, whose foreign exchange reserves are massive.

I believe that the central banks of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will accelerate their purchases of Gold given the euro zone debt crisis and the risk of the debt crisis spreading to Japan, the UK and probably the U.S.

The World’s Central Banks are Running Away from U.S. Dollars and Euros and Buying Gold?

The International Monetary Fund announced late yesterday that the Central Bank purchased 70.3 metric tonnes of Gold in April 2012.
The Philippines added 32.13 metric tonnes making their total currently at 194,241 tonnes
Turkey added 29.7 metric tonnes making their total currently at 239.3 tonnes
Mexico added 2.92 metric tonnes making their total currently at 125.5 tonnes
Kazakhstan added 2.02 metric tonnes making their total currently at 98.19 tonnes
Ukraine added 1.4 metric tonnes making their total currently at 30.607 tonnes
Sri Lanka added 2.177 metric tonnes making their total currently at 7.807 tonnes

IMF Buys $2.3 Billion Worth of Gold

After years of selling Gold to help finance developing countries projects, the International Monetary Fund announced in May 2012 that it is now forced to purchase $2.3 billion worth of Gold (1.5 million ounces) on account of rising global risks. The IMF currently holds around 2,800 tonnes of Gold, but facing increasing credit demand and risk from many euro zone countries, it needs to increase the Fund’s Gold reserves. This announcement comes as no surprise, because many Greek, Spanish and Italian banks are badly in need of Euros and U.S. Dollars and have been selling Gold into the global commodity markets to raise funds.

The Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Central Bank, Sergey Shvetsov, said that the Bank of Russia plans to keep buying Gold on the domestic market in order to diversify their foreign exchange reserves.

Gold Accumulation Programs

For the past two years, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China’s largest bank, has continued to increase the size of their Gold Accumulation program. As of April 2012 ICBC now has over 2½ million Chinese clients buying Gold on a monthly basis. At this current pace of growth, the bank should have over 5 million Gold accumulation clients by 2015. The ICBC bank is currently holding over a billion dollars of Gold in their vaults.

Gold Accumulation programs have not only been very successful in making Gold more accessible in cities, but also in more rural parts of China as well, turning the owners of these accounts into long term investors. This program is responsible for much of the 79 metric tonnes of Gold acquired by China at the end of February, putting China on the path to acquire 479 tons in 2012. Banks in both India and Japan offer Gold Accumulation programs, but they are a fraction of the size of ICBC.

On May 9, 2012 the Federal Reserve Board and China’s Banking Regulatory Commission approved ICBC’s purchase of an 80% stake in New York’s Bank of East Asia. This is the first time a controlling purchase of a U.S. bank was made by a Chinese bank. Speculation is that this is the first step in making the Chinese Renminbi more acceptable as foreign exchange. There is also a strong possibility that once the appropriate staffing and computer software is in place, New York’s Bank of East Asia will start offering a Gold accumulation program to its account holders.

Jewelry Fabrication Demand

The World Gold Council (WGC) just released first quarter 2012 Jewelry Fabrication Demand numbers. For the first three months of 2012 jewelry demand was 511 metric tonnes, up 80 tonnes (18.5%) compared to 431 metric tonnes from the fourth quarter of 2011.

Bar and Coin Demand

Public and institutional investment demand for Gold coins and bars have increased dramatically over the past two years. WGC numbers show coin and bar demand for 2009 at 786 metric tonnes, 2010 at 1,210 metric tonnes, and 2011 at 1,524 metric tonnes. Demand has increased 94% in just two years as the average price continues to increase 61%.

Supply/Demand Fundamentals are Truly Astonishing

After reading the above information it should be very clear why I say the fundamentals are astonishing. Supplies from Gold mines and recycled Gold are dropping, while Gold demand is increasing in four different areas. The instability of many currencies caused by the European debt crisis and the monetary stimulus from the U.K., Japan, China and the United States, will only increase demand from central banks and investors.

A Little Known Bullish Fact for Gold

The Basel Committee for Bank Supervision (BCBS), the maker of global capital requirements and whose Basel III rules form the basis for global bank regulation, is studying changing Gold from a bank capital Tier 3 asset to a bank capital Tier 1 asset. Gold has historically been classified as a Tier 3 asset. When determining how much money a bank can loan, the bank’s Gold holdings have traditionally been discounted 50 percent at the current market value.

With value cut in half, banks have little incentive to hold Gold as an asset. If the BCBS changes Gold to a bank capital Tier 1 asset, the valuation of Gold will no longer be discounted and Gold will be considered a core asset of a bank’s financial strength from a regulator’s point of view. This will encourage American banks to also hold Gold as a financial asset like European and Asian banks have for years.

Below is a list of our standard Gold Bars, Gold Coins, Dinar Coins and Silver Bars available today.